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Post by Glenn on Jul 17, 2012 7:47:48 GMT -6
Feeders down to 1.33 from 1.60 not too long ago.
Just a matter of time until feeders sell at a discount to fats.
Implying another 15 cents to drop from here, at least!!!!
Sad, sad deal.........
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Post by George on Jul 17, 2012 9:41:13 GMT -6
How are slaughter cow prices holding up around the country?
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Post by Glenn on Jul 17, 2012 9:49:31 GMT -6
Off 12 - 15 cents from the peak. Slaughter cows: Head %Lean Weight Average Dress High Dress Low Dress Breakers 179 75-80% 1125-1850 75.25-79.00 80.00-84.00 68.00-74.75 Boners 25 80-85% 1075-1375 76.00-79.50 87.50 72.00-74.50 Lean 139 85-90% 1000-1350 75.50-80.50 86.00 70.50-74.00 Light 30 85-90% 750-1000 71.00-75.50 79.00-81.00 63.00-67.00 Kinda puts a kink in my plans I was telling you about this weekend!!!  |
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Post by Glenn on Jul 17, 2012 9:51:18 GMT -6
Here is OKC West's market commentary:
Compared to last week: Slaughter cows 5.00-10.00 lower.
Slaughter bulls 8.00-10.00 lower. Trade moderate. Demand
light for packers. Total of 440 cows and bulls sold with
88 percent going to packers.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2012 22:22:26 GMT -6
Might be a good time to look for recips for a fall calving embryo program.
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Post by Glenn on Jul 19, 2012 8:09:13 GMT -6
Might be a good time to look for recips for a fall calving embryo program. I am actually working on two plans for expansion right now and that is sort of Plan B. Might have to give it a lot more thought if prices keep dropping. Local sale called their cows 8-10 lower yesterday (Wed 7-18). Instead of buying commercial cows, I actually have a few that would work real well for that purpose. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2012 9:30:03 GMT -6
Might be a good time to look for recips for a fall calving embryo program. I am actually working on two plans for expansion right now and that is sort of Plan B. Might have to give it a lot more thought if prices keep dropping. Local sale called their cows 8-10 lower yesterday (Wed 7-18). Instead of buying commercial cows, I actually have a few that would work real well for that purpose. If you are thinking of lineing up recips, you may want to visit with an et technician or facility. Some of them will line them up for you and do alot of the screening on them to identifiy the ones that are more likely to work best. Depends on who you would work with. |
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Post by George on Jul 19, 2012 13:19:16 GMT -6
Any thoughts/predictions on what's going to happen to the slaughter cow market in the next couple of months?
I've got some slaughter cows that I need to sell - and I was wondering whether "the hit" on them has already been taken - or the market will continue to drop into the fall.
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Post by Glenn on Jul 19, 2012 13:28:34 GMT -6
George,
My best "guess" but I am putting my money where my mouth is, is that we see a few more weeks of weakness but then we see a recovery in a month or so. I don't know if we'll hit the dollar for cutter cows or not but I sure think .85-.95 is realistic. That beats .78 where we are at now. A lot depends on the runs in Kansas, Nebraska. If they go into full scale liquidations we could see the rough spot last more than a few weeks. If they get a little moisture we may go higher than .85-.95......
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2012 22:38:21 GMT -6
FWIW...The feed mill I work at is going to 24 hour production on Monday. Normally, we are slow during the grass season. We are getting enough orders for mostly cow cubes that we are going to 24 hour production at least 2 months earlier than we have the last 2 years. Cubes are up around winter prices. Not unllikely that we will see quite a bit of liquidation if the weather doesn't improve. Just gonna get too expensive, I am afraid.
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Post by Glenn on Aug 7, 2012 9:21:16 GMT -6
George, My best "guess" but I am putting my money where my mouth is, is that we see a few more weeks of weakness but then we see a recovery in a month or so. I don't know if we'll hit the dollar for cutter cows or not but I sure think .85-.95 is realistic. That beats .78 where we are at now. A lot depends on the runs in Kansas, Nebraska. If they go into full scale liquidations we could see the rough spot last more than a few weeks. If they get a little moisture we may go higher than .85-.95...... Looks like I was right here. At least for the time being. Yesterday's OKC West cow market report: >>Compared to last week: Slaughter cows 3.00-5.00 higher. Slaughter bulls steady on a very light test. Trade moderate.<< >> Head %Lean Weight Average Dress High Dress Low Dress Breakers 26 75-80% 1275-2260 82.00-84.00 87.00-88.00 74.50-80.50 Boners 29 80-85% 1000-1500 81.50-84.25 85.25-87.00 74.00-76.50 Lean 39 85-90% 1000-1300 78.00-82.00 84.00 68.00-76.50 Light 12 85-90% 750-1000 73.00 81.00 67.00<< So basically .80 to .88 for slaughter cows. As long as they are not emaciated or gobby fat. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2012 20:28:28 GMT -6
I agree with Flatlander on cows. There are only so many cows and whether we liquidate some or not, the end game should be good for the long haul. The feedyard guys I work with are real growly on feeder cattle. Until they can find a top in feed prices, they will stay nervous. Projecting 1.40+ cost of gain on fats makes them very apprehensive and nervous. Cattle closing out now are losing $350 - 400 per head. Inventory is on our side as producers, but there is allot of nervous feeders out there. They want to feed them, just do't know how to buy em right, so for now we are at the mercy of them unless you want to feed them.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2012 17:33:08 GMT -6
I agree with Flatlander on cows. There are only so many cows and whether we liquidate some or not, the end game should be good for the long haul. The feedyard guys I work with are real growly on feeder cattle. Until they can find a top in feed prices, they will stay nervous. Projecting 1.40+ cost of gain on fats makes them very apprehensive and nervous. Cattle closing out now are losing $350 - 400 per head. Inventory is on our side as producers, but there is allot of nervous feeders out there. They want to feed them, just do't know how to buy em right, so for now we are at the mercy of them unless you want to feed them. seems like it wasn't that long ago it was 50 cents. i've got the feed... think i'm going to run them til grass market and see. probably look back and say why didn't i just let them go and sell the feed. |
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