JMO

[Glenn]

Since I have been back from the Annual meeting, I've been thinking a lot about the future of the AHA, and I hit on it briefly in my "trip report" (Narcissist report).

I said that I thought that "financial issues" would force the breed's hand on where to focus. And that is true but after kicking it around in my head, I do believe the die has already been cast on that. As finances deteriorate there will be a greater focus on "show/hobby" breeding and less and eventually no focus on "commercial" cattle. In reality, I feel right now we are about at a 75-25 mix. 75% show/junior/hobby focus while "trying" to remain "somewhat" commercially relevant.

One need only look at the pork business to see this. There are still Pork Breed Associations. Are they commercially relevant? No. They exist for the remaining hobbyist raising and/or showing that particular breed of swine. Beef is headed there in a hurry. So in many ways, though I don't particularly "like" it, I understand that this is where we are going. The less the AHA pours into the losing game of "commercial viability" the longer their resources last to actually exist. This is a slow drain and in a decade or so the AHA will be smaller, much smaller.

[lcc]

Nov 1, 2019 13:01:26 GMT -6 Glenn said:

Since I have been back from the Annual meeting, I've been thinking a lot about the future of the AHA, and I hit on it briefly in my "trip report" (Narcissist report).

I said that I thought that "financial issues" would force the breed's hand on where to focus. And that is true but after kicking it around in my head, I do believe the die has already been cast on that. As finances deteriorate there will be a greater focus on "show/hobby" breeding and less and eventually no focus on "commercial" cattle. In reality, I feel right now we are about at a 75-25 mix. 75% show/junior/hobby focus while "trying" to remain "somewhat" commercially relevant.

One need only look at the pork business to see this. There are still Pork Breed Associations. Are they commercially relevant? No. They exist for the remaining hobbyist raising and/or showing that particular breed of swine. Beef is headed there in a hurry. So in many ways, though I don't particularly "like" it, I understand that this is where we are going. The less the AHA pours into the losing game of "commercial viability" the longer their resources last to actually exist. This is a slow drain and in a decade or so the AHA will be smaller, much smaller.

Glenn, I always admire your perspective and generally find myself agreeing with your take on things. 

I really think unchecked consolidation with in ag will be our downfall. And, I think your point on the hog breed associations points that out so incredibly well. No one (except for those with a large facility and a corporate contract) are raising production hogs - its just not happening. The same thing is happening with dairy right now. Medium sized dairies across the Midwest can't compete with these huge confinement dairies in NM and California. 

Maybe AHA isn't focusing on the commercial side because that side of things are dwindling by the day. It almost makes me sick because I can see it around the area my family is from. You can drive all around and see pastures that used to have 30-50 cows are now idle. Pens and corrals that were used to work cattle are slowly rotting and falling apart. You just don't see those small to medium-sized herds of cattle anymore, at least not around here.

In fact, I'm not real sure if a man could actually survive purely on marketing bulls to commercial cattlemen in my area anymore. I just don't think the market is there. Several sale barns have closed, and the ones that are still open have issues with attendance. Like I said, it makes me sick because I know it did not used to be that way. A lot of the bred cow sales have just a few buyers.

I'm sure there are a lot of factors - people moving to cities, steadier jobs, a new generation that don't want to actually work for a living/want a desk job, but I think we are all lying to ourselves if we don't think "Big Ag" has had something to do with this. Borrowing words here, but in that big, corporate model, producers are just costs to be minimized. And as we as "costs" get minimized, that wealth and vibrancy of rural America gets pocketed by a few corporations. 

And I am like you in that I cringe every time I see someone spending $10k plus on a 6 month old show heifer and then flushing her as a yearling, but at the same time I need to stop judging because that might be the only way to stay in the cattle business because running commercial cattle, at least around here, doesn't pencil out for many folks.

[timbernt]

Glenn, I think the future of the AHA depends on the future of the cattle industry and whether there is a place for Herefords in beef production. Right now the big four packers are making the equivalent of almost $10 billion dollars a year in excess profits. That kind of money buys a lot of influence and confidence they are on the right track. I have to doubt there will be a resurgence of the breed in mainstream beef production unless "national" decides the CHB brand gives them some type of marketing edge. If that happens there may be active bidding and parity at our local feeder auctions. As much as I decry the composite breed herefords have become, along with the loss of breed identity we no longer will see the need to feed herefords differently than other cattle in a pen. Using HRC in the Hereford trial this year has the potential to be very positive. Since HRC has a special relationship with "national" I would think there will be some influential executives watching. If this doesn't pan out, we move one year closer to oblivion with Herefords.

[franklinridgefarms]

I have no idea what the future holds for anything and especially cattle farming and ranching which is near and dear to me. We just got back home from taking some Hereford and HerefordX calves to a Hereford influence feeder calf sale at Stanford, KY. As I understand it there are going to be over 1000 head in it. There are definitely Hereford cattle out there. It seems to me that it is still well worth trying to compete for a place in the market. BWF cattle are definitely well received here and straight Herefords are still sought out by some cow calf producers. From what I can tell Shorthorns have pretty much went the direction of a show breed, hardly ever see them around anymore significantly less numerous than Herefords. As I watched them grade the calves today I thought about this post and the short phenotype of a lot of the show cattle. The calves with smaller frames get labeled as small and will bring considerably less. They also have a grade that they call 3muscle which to me looks like a light muscled thinner framier type that will sell for less too. I have always said that the show ring cattle should be a reflection of the breeding pasture, which ultimately ends up at the market. It does not seem to follow those needs and many of those show ring cattle are polar opposites of what commercial cattlemen need. I absolutely believe Herefords have a lot to offer a commercial Hereford be it cows or bulls and really don’t want to see the day they are relegated to a hobby or show breed.

[perli]

I am involved with a small 4h calf show I have seen the clubby type calves in some of the other breeds the Hereford calves that are shown look like good functional type cattle the show people from what I have seen haven’t messed them up. I hope they don’t.

[strojanherefords]

Nov 1, 2019 13:01:26 GMT -6 Glenn said:

Since I have been back from the Annual meeting, I've been thinking a lot about the future of the AHA, and I hit on it briefly in my "trip report" (Narcissist report).

I said that I thought that "financial issues" would force the breed's hand on where to focus. And that is true but after kicking it around in my head, I do believe the die has already been cast on that. As finances deteriorate there will be a greater focus on "show/hobby" breeding and less and eventually no focus on "commercial" cattle. In reality, I feel right now we are about at a 75-25 mix. 75% show/junior/hobby focus while "trying" to remain "somewhat" commercially relevant.

One need only look at the pork business to see this. There are still Pork Breed Associations. Are they commercially relevant? No. They exist for the remaining hobbyist raising and/or showing that particular breed of swine. Beef is headed there in a hurry. So in many ways, though I don't particularly "like" it, I understand that this is where we are going. The less the AHA pours into the losing game of "commercial viability" the longer their resources last to actually exist. This is a slow drain and in a decade or so the AHA will be smaller, much smaller.

We as a membership need to have a better idea of where our dues are going.  We need to know that we are getting our monies worth when we register our calves.  I personally believe that the AHA has a path to long term viability.  We need an advocate looking out for the interest of the smaller cow calf producer.  

[franklinridgefarms]

Nov 6, 2019 23:53:12 GMT -6 strojanherefords said:

Nov 1, 2019 13:01:26 GMT -6 Glenn said:

Since I have been back from the Annual meeting, I've been thinking a lot about the future of the AHA, and I hit on it briefly in my "trip report" (Narcissist report).

I said that I thought that "financial issues" would force the breed's hand on where to focus. And that is true but after kicking it around in my head, I do believe the die has already been cast on that. As finances deteriorate there will be a greater focus on "show/hobby" breeding and less and eventually no focus on "commercial" cattle. In reality, I feel right now we are about at a 75-25 mix. 75% show/junior/hobby focus while "trying" to remain "somewhat" commercially relevant.

One need only look at the pork business to see this. There are still Pork Breed Associations. Are they commercially relevant? No. They exist for the remaining hobbyist raising and/or showing that particular breed of swine. Beef is headed there in a hurry. So in many ways, though I don't particularly "like" it, I understand that this is where we are going. The less the AHA pours into the losing game of "commercial viability" the longer their resources last to actually exist. This is a slow drain and in a decade or so the AHA will be smaller, much smaller.

We as a membership need to have a better idea of where our dues are going.  We need to know that we are getting our monies worth when we register our calves.  I personally believe that the AHA has a path to long term viability.  We need an advocate looking out for the interest of the smaller cow calf producer.  

I believe that is true with all breed associations as well as our local state and national Cattlemen’s associations. The cow calf producers of all sizes need to have someone advocating for them after all that is what my understanding of their relevance should be and I think the breed associations could and should do more than just keep records and promote certain projects. The future of the industry here in this country is in danger and it affects far more than most realize. Without a substantial commercial customer base no breed let a lone multiple ones can thrive. Our Cattlemen’s associations have let us down in a major way over the years and are now trying to make us think they have been working hard and deserve the membership dues. Breed associations should have some sort of representation as well to help counter and push along the associations at every level.