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Post by Glenn on Dec 1, 2015 9:54:20 GMT -6
what a train wreck looks like:
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Post by jayh on Dec 1, 2015 10:19:59 GMT -6
I know I watched feeders sell here last Monday. I could have bought 900+ lb heifers for 1.00 lb. They were nice ones.
Also fleshy but short toothed 2-3 period cows .45 I don't think its bottomed yet either.
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Post by Glenn on Dec 1, 2015 10:24:53 GMT -6
I don't either. I think we are in for a major shakeout in things. Glad as hell that I only bought 1 high dollar cow the last few years. I'd hate to be hung with a group of high dollar cows that will never pay for themselves. Some folks are going to be in a 9-way Bind.
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Post by Glenn on Dec 1, 2015 10:27:51 GMT -6
I'd hate to be hung with a group of high dollar cows that will never pay for themselves. Some folks are going to be in a 9-way Bind. That goes for commercial cows and registered cows both. Lot's of folks in Texas are going to go bankrupt, I'm sure. The drought ended right at the peak of cattle prices. Lots of ranches were stocked with $2800 bred heifers and $3500 pairs. Those folks are screwed.
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talin
Yearling
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Choo Choo
Dec 1, 2015 11:21:58 GMT -6
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Post by talin on Dec 1, 2015 11:21:58 GMT -6
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2015 12:04:17 GMT -6
Haven't seen the prices drop at the meat counter in the same fashion yet so the packers and retailers must be making some good money at the moment. Have a couple cull cows regretting now that we didn't send them off shortly after weaning instead of around the first of the year like we typcially do once they've put some weight back on after weaning. We have been retaining ownership in our steers the past several years and send them off to a partnership feedlot that has a relationship with Greater Omaha packing who pays top market price for Hereford influence beef. Probably will continue that, we get some useful information back with that program such as carcass data, profitability report, and updates on their gains throughout the process but with the prices right now we're definately looking over all options carefully as not sure which route is really going to be the better one.
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Post by Glenn on Dec 1, 2015 12:11:01 GMT -6
Travis, you are spot on about the retail price. Just looking at cull cows (hamburger meat). Ground beef still over $4 here at grocery store (85-15). Yet packer cows were at $1.30 not TOO awful long ago. Now lots in the .60s and saw some SHELLIES at .40 something.......cow packer or retailer or BOTH are making some serious money right now on that deal.
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Choo Choo
Dec 1, 2015 12:41:12 GMT -6
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Post by elkwc on Dec 1, 2015 12:41:12 GMT -6
Still several in this area asking $2,750-3,250 for bred heifers. Some have reduced prices in order to move them. Others are holding firm. One older cattleman told me to wait until winter really sets in and he feels a buyer can buy many at their price. It is hard to wait when you have abundant pasture.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2015 12:48:21 GMT -6
Yeah it's rediculous just how expensive even the worst ground beef costs right now. I used to work in the meat room at the grocery store back in high school and college and got to learn a little bit on how they set prices. Probably the packers making out the best right now, unless a retailer is just price gouging most seem to have a set margin they mark up based on what cost they are getting it from their supplier just like they are with any other item in the store. There would be times the weekly ad would have something on sale and it just happened that that week the supplier bumped their price up so there were times they might be just breaking even on a sale item or possibly even lose a little if there was a sharp sudden increase in prices. What I don't like either is a lot of the big grocers are moving more to pre-packaged meats so the quality of the cuts I think suffer and a lot of the bigger stores around here that have full-service meat counters most of the fresh cut stuff is now specialized stuff where it costs more because either they bought some supposed "high quality grade" stuff to market or they doctor it all up with marinades, spices, stuffed, or whatever creation they can come up with. Even something as simple as a steak or pork chop in the full service counters they might get you with a price gimmick where they already have it cut to something like a 6oz or 8oz serving at a flat price and if you do the math that flat price can sometimes be almost double per pound than the same type of cut being sold in the pre-packaged section by the pound.
Glad we get our beef from my wife's family who holds back some steers every year to feed out and send to the locker that family and friends will buy. They don't really try to make any extra money on top of it which with as many people that want to buy it they probably could - they just price it at whatever market price was the day the steer went to the locker and you pay for the processing. Can't remember what it was last year but seems like including the processing costs it's been somewhere between $2-$3/lb and usually seems like it's closer to that $2 than $3 which is very reasonable when you can't even get the worst ground beef for that price lately at the store. Plus you know exactly where your beef is coming from and how it was raised which is a big plus too. With pork I always wait till I see a good sale on whole boneless pork loins then buy a couple to cut up and freeze some chops and a few roasts. It's crazy how you might find a deal on a pork loin at $1.49/lb once in awhile but the same store has some of their boneless chops selling for as much as $4.99/lb depending on the type of cut. Any boneless chop is coming from that same loin they have on sale, don't know why anyone would spend 2 or 3 dollars more a pound for a certain boneless chop that was just cut either a little thicker, thinner, or butterflied from the same loin.
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klee
Fresh Calf
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Choo Choo
Dec 1, 2015 13:39:28 GMT -6
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Post by klee on Dec 1, 2015 13:39:28 GMT -6
Imagine some big names are worried about spring bull sales also. Saw some $3100 bred commercial heifers sale a month ago .
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Post by jayh on Dec 5, 2015 18:58:52 GMT -6
Seen .40 pound cows sell. Short solid and capable of raising a few more calves. Market is bad here
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Deleted
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Choo Choo
Dec 6, 2015 5:40:59 GMT -6
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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2015 5:40:59 GMT -6
Hereford cows are still over $3k. The price on quality Hereford pairs has actually gone up since the CME price started dropping fast. Nice group of horned cows if you have the money: Horned Heifer cows with F1 Braford heifer calves. www.cattlerange.com/512C648-201/512C648-201.html
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Post by Glenn on Dec 6, 2015 14:39:09 GMT -6
I can ask any price I want on cattle. Now whether I get that is another matter all together.
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Post by elkwc on Dec 6, 2015 18:45:59 GMT -6
I can ask any price I want on cattle. Now whether I get that is another matter all together. Glenn I thought I had made a post and must of done something wrong but was going to say about what you did. I've seen many bred heifers that was listed at 2,750 - 3,000 that sold for a lot less. As they always say you can always come down but it is hard to go up. I think some are asking the really high prices hoping someone will make an offer higher than they intended and then they will accept. The cattle I've actually heard of that are moving when it comes to bred heifers and pairs are selling for a lot less than many of them are advertised for. I gave more for a couple of heifers than market value but then I was picking two out of 90. Even the Red Angus are selling slow unless they drop the price. The first time this has happened in a while. It is a guessing game now. More of the heifer developers are in deep trouble. They gave as much for the heifers as they can currently get and that is without any costs added. I was offerred the heifers I bought at what they cost the man in August off Superior. There is going to be a bloodbath when many are forced to finally move their heifers.
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Post by elkwc on Dec 6, 2015 18:50:28 GMT -6
I can ask any price I want on cattle. Now whether I get that is another matter all together. Glenn I thought I had made a post and must of done something wrong but was going to say about what you did. I've seen many bred heifers that was listed at 2,750 - 3,000 that sold for a lot less. As they always say you can always come down but it is hard to go up. I think some are asking the really high prices hoping someone will make an offer higher than they intended and then they will accept. The cattle I've actually heard of that are moving when it comes to bred heifers and pairs are selling for a lot less than many of them are advertised for. I gave more for a couple of heifers than market value but then I was picking two out of 90. Even the Red Angus are selling slow unless they drop the price. The first time this has happened in a while. It is a guessing game now. More of the heifer developers are in deep trouble. They gave as much for the heifers as they can currently get and that is without any costs added. I was offerred the heifers I bought at what they cost the man in August off Superior. There is going to be a bloodbath when many are forced to finally move their heifers.
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Choo Choo
Dec 6, 2015 21:23:55 GMT -6
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Post by btlrupert on Dec 6, 2015 21:23:55 GMT -6
After the price freeze in the 70's we bought bred females for $85.. I'll never forget that!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2015 5:13:58 GMT -6
I can ask any price I want on cattle. Now whether I get that is another matter all together. That group would average close to 3 @ our salebarn It is interesting how differently we all operate in our markets. I see the guys from our salebarn all the time. They know our cattle and we know the price we will get. The way we make it work is by controlling our costs. One of the guys who works for them also works for me so it is no mystery what I am bringing to the sale. I hear on the internet all the time, "I would raise F1's but I cannot take the hit on the steers." Well, we can get an F1 Braford up to weight and still make money if the price drops to $0.80/lb. Cannot say the same thing for the feeders that bring much better prices. I do see a huge conflict between what the grain states are producing and what works on the Gulf Coast grass pastures. The big, beefy bull on the South Poll Grass Cattle website was shipped here from Missouri. He promptly fell apart when he had to graze his own dinner.
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Post by elkwc on Dec 7, 2015 5:50:44 GMT -6
I can ask any price I want on cattle. Now whether I get that is another matter all together. That group would average close to 3 @ our salebarn It is interesting how differently we all operate in our markets. I see the guys from our salebarn all the time. They know our cattle and we know the price we will get. The way we make it work is by controlling our costs. One of the guys who works for them also works for me so it is no mystery what I am bringing to the sale. I hear on the internet all the time, "I would raise F1's but I cannot take the hit on the steers." Well, we can get an F1 Braford up to weight and still make money if the price drops to $0.80/lb. Cannot say the same thing for the feeders that bring much better prices. I do see a huge conflict between what the grain states are producing and what works on the Gulf Coast grass pastures. The big, beefy bull on the South Poll Grass Cattle website was shipped here from Missouri. He promptly fell apart when he had to graze his own dinner. JW I agree. Again it is what will work in your environment and also market. Most of us know and talk to at least some of the sale barn operators at least some. Like I've stated before my BIL owned an interest in a local barn for several years so along with his feeding of cattle he has a lot of experience and knowledge of what it takes to make money in this area. I know a few of the buyers and feedlot managers. Then my friends who like TK on this site who retain ownership all give their view of what it takes to be profitable.There was a time that a little ear was preferred here. Not anymore. But in the end a person has to raise what his environment will allow. Some on here can raise a frame 4 or smaller heavy muscled animal and it will do well. Not here. A 1300# frame 4 here doesn't do well and like the beefy bull you mentioned falls apart and also many times develops structural problems. As one person put it you don't see many 5' 200 plus pound people that are mountain hikers. The same is true for the short, heavy cattle in our semi arid, rough climate. Now a frame 4 1,000 cow will but many of us desire a larger cow than that. Most I've talked to have found the frame 5-low6 cattle the most profitable here. Again I know it varies greatly from area to area. In the south at least some ear is a must I'm told.
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Post by Glenn on Dec 7, 2015 7:39:22 GMT -6
I'd have to see a video to believe any pair would bring $3000 at a SALEBARN. TODAY!! Maybe a few weeks ago but lots has happened in the last month.
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